@tomazkid

You offended TimberWolf RC3 with that ridiculous page, I had to reboot twice to clear it! :)

..........

I thought this thread was entombed somewhere but notice a succession of uncomprehending comments like "So much for global warming" - uncomprehending because as individuals we only know and respond to weather rather than climate. The understanding comes of consulting the science. So here's a quick sketch of what is happening.

1. as we keep pumping the greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere the imbalance between heat emitted and heat trapped grows and the planet continues to store the heat, very largely in the ocean, particularly during la nina cycles which some refer to as charging cycles. En nino cycles release some of that heat back to the atmosphere.

Compounding this is the big melt in the arctic this season with consequent ocean warming even through thin ice remaining. Now the freeze cycle is starting and of course the arctic will freeze all over as it always does, though the ice is thinner. This freeze requires the release of an immense amount of heat into the atmosphere - and your northern weather will be very much affected. (please bear in mind that warm air in arctic terms is still freezing cold for people further south.)

2. Every degree of rise in global temperature causes a 7% rise in water vapour, drawn from the land (drought) and from the sea of course. This results in more precipitation in some places. Also rise in temperature results in rise in wind velocity.

3. The poles warm rapidly compared with equatorial regions. This is an important bit. The thermal gradient between equator and poles reduces. In consequence the jet stream, the boundary between the warm air mass and the cool air mass, tends to meander as a river does when it reaches the plains. In weather terms they talk about Rossby waves. You can probably find maps of the atmospheric Rossby waves if you look about. Within the deep meanders toward the tropics you will find depressions: cold arctic air, snow, rain, floods, crops washed out. In the alternate meanders toward the arctic you will find blocking highs, hot air, heat waves, drought, crop failure, wild fires.

Whereas the normal pattern of the past has been for these alternations to pass over quickly, the tendancy now is for them to linger thus intensifying the experience. This is what has been happening over this now fading northern summer, worst drought & heat ever over USA and Greenland while the edge of the cold phase is raining all over UK and part of Europe. The next dry loop is bringing drought and fires to the other part of Europe and so on round the globe.

The UK met office has been so bold as to predict prolonged arctic cold for the UK winter. In USA they are hoping the coming El Nino will change the pattern and deliver the rain UK has too much of. I'm expecting hot and dry in northern NZ.

Here we are alternating almost every week between cold air from the arctic (just reaches us in Auckland but bad further south), and warm wet from the equator, a couple of days wet, a couple of days fine and inbetween a day or three of showers with fine periods and rather strong winds. No sooner do my water tanks lower by 300 litres total than they get filled up again. The forecast here is for a wet spring.

Noel

p.s. I have not offered any links but there is a lot on this stuff if you look up the science. It gets reasonably well reported by the Guardian newspaper.

@NoelFuller

Hopefully you experience worse cold air from the Antarctic than from the Arctic if you live in Auckland

But I actually wholeheartedly agree with everything else you wrote.

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This weeks pet peeve:
Using "voltage" instead of "potential", which leads to inventing new words like "amperage" instead of "current" (I, measured in A) or possible "charge" (amperehours, Ah or Coulomb, C). Sometimes I don't even know what people mean.

@olegil

Quote:

Hopefully you experience worse cold air from the Antarctic than from the Arctic if you live in Auckland

I put it down to repetitive brain injury :)

Thanks

Noel

@NoelFuller

it will be very interesting to see if this gets any major media coverage, IPCC themselves acknowledges they have been wrong in these drafts.

http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/

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Site admins are people too..pooff!

@tomazkid

Quote:

it will be very interesting to see if this gets any major media coverage, IPCC themselves acknowledges they have been wrong in these drafts. http://www.stopgreensuicide.com/

Not really

Last edited by SlayeR__ on 30-Dec-2012 at 07:38 AM.

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@SlayeR__

It's actually scary how far the "sceptics" are willing to go in their misinformation campaign.

My pet peeve:
"CH4 is a much more potent GHG than CO2, so we should ignore CO2."

No, dummies. We should reduce emissions of both. Like we're already doing, by conserving bogs and putting pressure on farmers to change how they store and spread manure. Unfortunately, cows fart a LOT of methane, but to change this we would need to go back to less efficient farming which would increase the price of milk and beef and I'm pretty certain your average sceptic won't agree with that.

And if you think that the sun is more important than the atmosphere when it comes to climate, I suggest you get rid of your blankets in the winter and then try to enjoy a sunday on the sofa

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This weeks pet peeve:
Using "voltage" instead of "potential", which leads to inventing new words like "amperage" instead of "current" (I, measured in A) or possible "charge" (amperehours, Ah or Coulomb, C). Sometimes I don't even know what people mean.

@olegil


Ice is growing...
Hmm, usually ice grows when it is colder, not warmer.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html

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Site admins are people too..pooff!

@tomazkid

And the trend over more than 12 months is?

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2000/09/Figure31.png

_________________
This weeks pet peeve:
Using "voltage" instead of "potential", which leads to inventing new words like "amperage" instead of "current" (I, measured in A) or possible "charge" (amperehours, Ah or Coulomb, C). Sometimes I don't even know what people mean.

@olegil
So what about the trend over thousands of years?? That tells a entirely different story...
The long term trends show cooling and the current warming period is not unusual at all if you look at rest of the holocene period.

@olegil

Recall the "iceage is coming" theories before this "global warming" was the only politically correct theory?

One alarm from that time was that the Gulf stream was weakening.
How is it now compared with the 1980-ties ?

Also, long term ice drills show that Greenland was a lot warmer around year 1000.
(Why else would they have called it Greenland?)
After that gradually colder (the little ice age) around 1650 as top, then warmer again.

I am not saying global warming is totally wrong, just that the deep ice drills show that the times between ice ages are the warmest right before the next ice age comes.
like here from the Vostok station:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vostok_Petit_data.svg
400000 years.

What annoys me with this global warming is that it seems to be the only accepted theory these days, Al Gore's fault.

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Site admins are people too..pooff!

@tomazkid

Quote:

What annoys me with this global warming is that it seems to be the only accepted theory these days, Al Gore's fault.

No Al Gore has nothing to do with it he just made a movie and he is not a scientist in this field, it is all about the CONSENSUS among the relevant scientists.

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@tomazkid

Quote:

Ice is growing... Hmm, usually ice grows when it is colder, not warmer.

Happen every fall, will get worse going into winter, and changes year to year dosnt make a trend and is covered by the normal variations year to year, at the moment it is under the normal average.

Quotes from the article:
Quote:

Some eminent scientists now believe the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century – a process that would expose computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming as dangerously misleading.

Some eminent scientists ?, there is not even hint who these are.

Quote:

The disclosure comes 11 months after The Mail on Sunday triggered intense political and scientific debate by revealing that global warming has ‘paused’ since the beginning of 1997 – an event that the computer models used by climate experts failed to predict. In March, this newspaper further revealed that temperatures are about to drop below the level that the models forecast with ‘90 per cent certainty’.

Well actually it has not paused, what changed is where the heat is going, like the oceans and melting of ice.

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Last edited by SlayeR__ on 11-Sep-2013 at 01:21 AM.
Last edited by SlayeR__ on 11-Sep-2013 at 01:17 AM.

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@Tomas

Quote:

@olegil So what about the trend over thousands of years?? That tells a entirely different story... The long term trends show cooling and the current warming period is not unusual at all if you look at rest of the holocene period.

The extended version of the Hockey stick graph show that we should be in a cooling period, but we are not cooling because of an unprecedented rate of warming the last 100 years.

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Not wanting to sound negative but the truth is we're already screwed.

Nothing to see here.....move along.

Just about *anything* written by that rag 'The Daily Mail' is as accurate as 98% of that reported by Fox News -- in other words, it isn't. It's sensationalist crapola created for people who can't do Math or comprehend scholarly scientific papers.

Global warming won't go away just because you don't believe in it, it's rather like gravity, it's here to stay. (Unless we ALL were to take rather drastic measures to thwart the damage already done. And knowing my fellow Americans as I do, I honestly can't see that happening.)

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¤¤ Official Hyperion Zealot ¤¤

(No, I didn't type that with a straight face.)