@djrikki

Quote:

djrikki wrote: @Dandy Sure. It was reported from several sources a couple of weeks ago, here a few: http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=243172

Hmmm - while the article you linked above (Print Date : Monday, June 27, 2011)
reads
"Even while approaching the next peak in the cycle, a typically storm period called solar maximum that's due in late 2013, the sun seems to be entering a decreased solar output phase, new research has suggested, one that might all but eliminate sunspot activity during the next cycle, which hits its maximum again in 2022. ",
NASA reported to the contrary on April 14, 2011:
"...Back in 2008, the solar cycle plunged into the deepest minimum in nearly a century. Sunspots all but vanished, solar flares subsided, and the sun was eerily quiet. ... As 2011 unfolds, sunspots have returned and they are crackling with activity. On February 15th and again on March 9th, Earth orbiting satellites detected a pair of "X-class" solar flares--the most powerful kind of x-ray flare. The last such eruption occurred back in December 2006. ... "

Roughly 3 weeks ago there was a major CME towards planet earth, which caused aurora borealis that was visible even here in Cologne, Germany - source: NASA

Quote:

djrikki wrote: http://www.skynews.com.au/eco/article.aspx?id=625683 http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/jun/16/sun-astronomy

At your last link I found something that makes things a bit clearer to me:

"That hibernation would not begin now, as the current sunspot cycle, the 24th, has recently passed its minimum. Hill and his colleagues pondered a slowdown in sunspot activity in the 25th cycle, expected sometime around 2019."

While following some links there, I stumbled across this page. The part about cooling in Europe was of special interest for me:

"...The revelation also helps explain some seemingly strange regional climate phenomena, such as how Europe can have very cold winters at a time when the world as a whole is warming.

Some climate change sceptics have suggested the changes in the sun's brightness can explain the global warming seen over the past century. But Haigh said: "It does not give comfort to climate sceptics at all." If the sun warmed the Earth less when it was at the solar maximum, then the reverse was also true, she said: "You can't have it one way and not the other."

In addition, she said, the warming influence of rising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, emitted by human activities, was at least 10 times greater than changes in the strength of the sun.

Prof Mike Lockwood, a solar physicist at the University of Reading said: "We don't have any reason at the moment to change our overall view of the contributions of changing solar radiation to climate change, not on a global scale, but there is quite a lot of evidence coming forward that these changes do matter on a regional scale and particularly to us here in Europe."

That is because the sun's intensity plays a crucial role at mid-latitudes, where the UK sits, by controlling the jet stream winds, which in turn govern weather, he said. Changes to the jet stream are responsible for extremely cold European winters, such as the last one, and also the conditions which caused the volcanic ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano to blow southwards and ground flights in April and May.

As well as the 11-year solar cycles, there are "grand" cycles lasting 200-300 years and, looking forwards, Lockwood said the end of the current grand solar maximum was overdue. "That does imply under these regional effects that we may go back to the sort of temperatures seen in what is called the little ice age, [a period of colder European temperatures between 1600 and 1800]. So we would have the ultimate paradox that in a globally warming world, we would have colder winters here in Europe - while it would be an awful lot warmer in Greenland."

The new work, Lockwood said, helps resolve why solar activity can affect regional climate in this way while not affecting the overall warming of the globe.

The research is based on the first ever measurements of solar radiation across the entire spectrum from X-rays to infrared light which showed that the mix of different wavelengths of light – for example infra-red, ultraviolet – was very different to what had been expected. The data, collected by the Sorce satellite between 2004 and 2007, revealed that the intensity of the ultraviolet light in the sun's rays fell by six times more than predicted over that period, while the amount of visible light exceeded expectations. Less intense ultraviolet light means less ozone is formed in the upper atmosphere, which in turn means the Earth warms, as does an increase in visible light.

Haigh said that future measurements would enable scientists to determine if the reversal of the link between solar intensity and warming on the Earth seen between 2004 and 2007 is normal solar behaviour, or an anomaly. "I think it is a case of watch this space," she said."

Hmmmm - cooler winters - o.k. - but why just the winters and not the summers?
This question arose while I was reading the article...

Last edited by Dandy on 30-Jun-2011 at 10:56 AM.
Last edited by Dandy on 30-Jun-2011 at 10:50 AM.

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If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
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Hmm,
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/07/26/new-paper-on-the-misdiagnosis-of-surface-temperature-feedbacks-from-variations-in-earth%E2%80%99s-radiant-energy-balance-by-spencer-and-braswell-2011/

Quote:

Data from NASA’s Terra satellite shows that when the climate warms, Earth’s atmosphere is apparently more efficient at releasing energy to space than models used to forecast climate change have been programmed to “believe.”

Anyone seen any comment from A. Gore about this?

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@Dandy
Quote:

Hmmmm - cooler winters - o.k. - but why just the winters and not the summers? This question arose while I was reading the article...

because you can't have a scientific theory without sufficient data to base your calculations on..?

BTW I read 11C yesterday morning at 11h, I'm collecting data since 25years, definitely the lowest temperature on July 27 I have measured ever.. (although I miss the temp on this day on 4 years)

And about the winter, it wasn't that cold, granted we had snow which didn't show up the last 3 years (I don' t consider less than 1cm as snow, since believing my grand mothers stories it used to snow at least 30-40cm each winter)

Last edited by Amigo1 on 29-Jul-2011 at 01:22 PM.

@Amigo1

In south east Norway, we set a few heat records early summer, followed by cold records in november/december, followed by heat records in april and rain records in june.

All in all, just a little bit more extreme than previous years. Other parts of Norway have mostly had only record heat, missing out on the wonderful Siberian winds we got just before Christmas.

My wife moved here from Kenya in May last year, her mother came visiting for the first time in November. It's likely to be the last time as well. She doesn't believe us when we send pictures of the farm not covered in snow

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@olegil

:D So the weather is pretty normal, it's just a little bit more extreme..
it looks like it's all fairytales about the climate change due to human interfering and pollution.. :-p

Last edited by Amigo1 on 29-Jul-2011 at 08:11 PM.

@tomazkid

Quote:

Quote: Data from NASA’s Terra satellite shows that when the climate warms, Earth’s atmosphere is apparently more efficient at releasing energy to space than models used to forecast climate change have been programmed to “believe.”

I find this interesting. Though one problem that's happened time and again is when scientists run the press first and to review second they're more often then not demonstrated to be incorrect. (Table top cold fusion was a great example of this.) So until this is the word of more than the scientists who did the experiment it's difficult to jump onboard. Though I'll definitely be watching to see the forth coming verification and validation of Spencer's results.

Though we do know models aren't prefect. This is why there's about a dozen models at play in the science. There were more and they were worse but as we uncover greater understanding of our planet we continue to drop and refine the models. Additionally, because temps are higher than predictions and there is more than 1 prediction scientists are well aware that more work needs to be done. Science is proceeding to build a better understanding of our world, and other worlds too.

Where can this go? If Spencer's work is not validated it'll likely be dropped to the background. If Spencer's work is validated it'll be included in the refinement, perhaps even dropping, other climate models out of the equation. This better understanding of the world is a good thing.

Where are we now? Again we still need verification and validation. Thanks Spencer, and all scientists, for bringing forth a better understanding of our planet. The cries I've seen about "Therefore GW is disproven" are politics over selling an idea at it's nebulous without confirmation or understanding of the more subtle nature of how past, present, and future science intergrates to build our understanding.

@BrianK

Something entirely different recently came to my mind.

It was said (and it seems logical to me) that the earth's albedo is decreasing due to the shrinking ice sheets. That means that more and more sunlight is absorbed by dark surfaces (such as sea surfaces) and so amplifies the warming effect, instead of reflecting the light to the space.

This made me think:
Why on earth do we still have dark roof tiles (red, brown, grey, black, blue) on top of our houses?

Why do our roads and parking areas have dark surfaces and not white ones?

Why do the sunny sides of so many buildings have dark surfaces?

I'd be interested to know by what degree the albedo could be increased, if we had white roof tiles on all buildings, all sunny walls painted white and also all roads and parking areas, etc. ...

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If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

Seems the desert of Sahel is shrinking, the the grass and trees are advancing North.
This is the opposite of what the Global Warming is supposed to do.



http://www.saheleco.net/news/videos.htm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQEuLSN7bxI


And here is a scientific paper about this, a bit old, from 2002, but seems it is valid still.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2811

Last edited by tomazkid on 16-Oct-2011 at 09:17 PM.

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@Dandy

Quote:

Dandy wrote: @BrianK This made me think: Why on earth do we still have dark roof tiles (red, brown, grey, black, blue) on top of our houses? Why do our roads and parking areas have dark surfaces and not white ones? Why do the sunny sides of so many buildings have dark surfaces? I'd be interested to know by what degree the albedo could be increased, if we had white roof tiles on all buildings, all sunny walls painted white and also all roads and parking areas, etc. ...

Practical reasons... that's why...

Think about it, roads painted white... result = drivers being blinded by sunlight reflecting off of them with crashes everywhere...

Roofs of buildings wall etc... all painted white... result aeroplane pilots being blinded by all that blinding sunlight being reflected at them from every direction imaginable with some very dire consequences...

Not to mention the higher fuel costs to the householder as even with a well insulated loft a white roof (or silver as they once tried where I live) leads to the sunlight being reflected away from the building and a cooling effect on it...

I get the idea of what you are saying but in the real world it is just not practicable for the reason I just mentioned and probably more...

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@Franko

Not to mention it's been brought up before by of all people.

here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5389278/Obamas-green-guru-calls-for-white-roofs.html


Chris

@Franko

Quote:

Franko wrote: @Dandy Quote: Dandy wrote: @BrianK This made me think: Why on earth do we still have dark roof tiles (red, brown, grey, black, blue) on top of our houses? Why do our roads and parking areas have dark surfaces and not white ones? Why do the sunny sides of so many buildings have dark surfaces? I'd be interested to know by what degree the albedo could be increased, if we had white roof tiles on all buildings, all sunny walls painted white and also all roads and parking areas, etc. ... Practical reasons... that's why... Think about it, roads painted white... result = drivers being blinded by sunlight reflecting off of them with crashes everywhere...

Franko, with all due respect - but last winter we had lots of snow here. Not the roads alone were white - the whole environment was. And guess what - there weren't more crashes due to drivers being blinded than in summer time...

Quote:

Franko wrote: @Dandy Roofs of buildings wall etc... all painted white... result aeroplane pilots being blinded by all that blinding sunlight being reflected at them from every direction imaginable with some very dire consequences...

Nahh - come on!
Don't they have their nice pilot sunglasses anymore?

If the roofs of buildings are painted white pilots only can only be blinded by them when they already are in a nose dive. Normally they look straight forward while sunlight reflected from white roofs would come from below - and below the pilots normally is the plane. So the pilot cannot be blinded most of the time, as he is in the shadow of the plane.
Should he nevertheless be blinded by reflections from white roofs he already is on an "unusual" course...
Do planes crash more frequently in the winter time when all ground is snow-white because their pilots being blinded by reflections? I don't think so...

Quote:

Franko wrote: @Dandy Not to mention the higher fuel costs to the householder as even with a well insulated loft a white roof (or silver as they once tried where I live) leads to the sunlight being reflected away from the building and a cooling effect on it...

That should be outweighed by the significanly lower costs for coolling in the summer...
Maybe it is better to cover the roofs with dark photovoltaic solar cells that are glued onto heat collectors and to store the heat they produce besides the electricity for reducing the heating costs during the winter period?
During operation photovoltaic solar cells easily reach temperatures of 85 °C while they are most efficient at around 20 °C. That would mean you could store roughly 65 °C for heating in the winter period AND increase the efficiency of the photovoltaic cells at the same time...

Quote:

Franko wrote: @Dandy I get the idea of what you are saying but in the real world it is just not practicable for the reason I just mentioned and probably more...

Please think again after I rebutted your objections. Perhaps it is more practicable as you might think at first...

Last edited by Dandy on 19-Oct-2011 at 12:40 PM.
Last edited by Dandy on 19-Oct-2011 at 12:37 PM.
Last edited by Dandy on 19-Oct-2011 at 12:30 PM.

_________________
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Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

An independent study of Global Warming:
http://berkeleyearth.org/Resources/Berkeley_Earth_Summary_20_Oct

Now first, this study has not been peer-reviewed. An important part of the scientific process.

One of the criticisms of Climatologists is their government funding. This work was funded by businesses. For example the American right-wing Koch Brothers, who have pushed millions of dollars into an anti-GW lobbists. And the team lead by Berkley physicist Muller. Muller has been very vocal about the gov funding science.

Another criticism has been the Climatologists don't know enough statistics. One of the lead scientists was Perlmutter, the physicist who recently won a Nobel prize for co-discovering the expanding universe. The expanding universe had an even larger amount of data to handle. Great choice for statistical knowledge.

Quick summary: the world has warmed ~1C since the mid-50s. (eg the Hockey-Stick is real) The last decade is the hottest observed. The metro area warming effect has no real impact on worldwide global warming data. (eg Those bad stations aren't as bad as Watts would lead you to believe.) And importantly - this data shows man is a large part of the reason the planet is warming.

Again it needs peer review. Though with funding from anti-GW interests, scientists who criticize government funding, and with backgrounds in statistical analysis doing projects larger than these analysis is fairly compelling.

It seems this thread is as dead as the AGW church movement (no wonder when you see some of the crap above).

[See the final nail in the coffin in real time here for those still interested in the dead horse: climategate v2.0 magic in action!]

Wind news: because all lease papers have been properly signed recently, the wind choppers are in the process of erection on my fields. My financial future looks even brighter than expected for the next 25 years: Dandy's (green) money is welcomed!

My deepest thanks from the cranks out there who made this legal fraud possible.

It was fun (and the ROI very good).

My last message here (probably).

Adios,
TMTisFree

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@TMTisFree

Quote:

See the final nail in the coffin in real time here for those still interested in the dead horse: climategate v2.0 magic in action

The problem with relying too much on these illegal and immoral hackers information is that emails are only part of the conversation. Without fuller knowledge of conversation the context isn't always easy to determine. The anti-science group assumes the worst and disbelieves anythings the scientists say. The pro-science group assumes the best and believes anythings the scientists say. You've (rightly or wrongly) ####ed off a group of scientists who either group must rely upon to get more information. Net this only servers to create more divesiveness and fails to result in better understanding.

For example, because context is lacking how the reader translates 'trick' (for one example) is highly dependent upon the reader's background. Those readers who are anti-science and dont' have a scientific background themselves will read in the meaning as trying to fool the public. Those readers who are pro-science or have experience in science themselves will understand 'trick' as a mathematical shortcut taken to get the correct answer.

Your thought of a 'nail in the coffin' isn't the result. The result is each side is hardened to their position, the free exchange of ideas is further impared, and now we have to discuss the ethical issues around hacking instead of focusing on the continual improvements to the science. I haven't seen this batch but like the first batch I don't expect we'll learn anything we don't already know.

@franko

Well time sure does fly and what a difference a year makes - this time tomorrow marks 1 year to the day that the eastern half of the UK was plunged into an early winter (ok so it started on the 21st Nov, but just cold and the odd flurry) thanks to the very heavy snowfall that fell on the evening of the 30th November and continued into the following morning resulting in depths of 1ft and above.

This year is almost the complete opposite! I lost count how many frosty nights we had from September-December back in 2010. This year I can count them on one hand - twice!

Winter is coming slowly thats for sure, but much of NW Europe is still crazy mild for the time of year. I expect temperatures to plummet over the next couple of weeks, recover in time for a green christmas lol... before being plunged back into the freezer come early January.

Last edited by djrikki on 29-Nov-2011 at 08:37 PM.

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Hello again from snowy Grimsby!

So much for global warming. Although we haven't had as much snowfall over this weekend in comparison to snowfall back on the 31st November 2010 (about 6-8cms this year vs 25cms (1 ft+) ) if you look at this recent pattern over the last 2-3 years against the geneal backdrop of the last two decades or more - winters have been progressive been getting better*!!

* Worse if you don't like snow; boo humbug etc...

As for the rest of February, its highly like that the winds will turn back to the East over the next few days (possibly strong Easterly) followed by a Northerly. So expect to see more snow the later part of the week (mostly in the East) and later in the month countrywide; temperature is likely to remain below average throughout February for everyone.

Last edited by djrikki on 05-Feb-2012 at 11:16 AM.
Last edited by djrikki on 05-Feb-2012 at 11:15 AM.

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@djrikki


Stupid heretics, how dare they doubt the religion of wind power?


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/9234715/Wind-farms-can-cause-climate-change-finds-new-study.html

http://climatecrocks.com/2012/05/02/fox-faux-physics-fail-global-warming-is-not-happening-and-wind-turbines-are-causing-it/

Last edited by tomazkid on 09-May-2012 at 04:37 PM.
Last edited by tomazkid on 09-May-2012 at 04:35 PM.

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Hmm, and now what will the UN + "Climate Panel" say to this ?



http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120709092606.htm

Guess it will not be "sorry, but we were wrong..."

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@tomazkid

Quote:

tomazkid wrote: Hmm, and now what will the UN + "Climate Panel" say to this ? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120709092606.htm Guess it will not be "sorry, but we were wrong..."

I'm with them on that one... there may be global warming elsewhere in the world but here in Scotland it global drowning...

Since May the 1st this year it's done nothing but rain here every single day (not one exception), there have been only 4 days where the sun has shone for 8 hours or more and 5 where it shone sporadically for less the 8 hours...

One constant has been that there has not been one single day when it hasn't rained at some point and the sun (I think it's called...) was last seen a week past on Monday...

I blame the Tory government myself for this, every time they're in office it's always miserable here...

I've had to dry out me squirrels more times than I care to remember this year and wee fat Albert (the talking one) still hasn't learnt to swim yet and I can't find squirrel sized waterwings anywhere on the net, where's the justice in that I ask...

Hope I get me Ark finished before it's too late, ruddy Mayans and their poxy 2012 calendar they could have at least predicted a hot end of the world and not a wet one...

I'm off for a paddle now in me back garden... now where me wellies...

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@Franko

http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm

Yikes, all those listed on that page.

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