@NoelFuller

Speaking of "Merchants of Doubt" by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M Conway they were about 20 miles away from me this week giving a lecture. Unfortunately, I didn't have the ability to attend.

@Dandy

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Most scientists contradict Tomas's original statement and confirm your statement. Here are two examples:

Thanks for these.

Quote:

to increasingly warmer and wetter climate in the twentieth century.

When one puts together "warmer", "wetter" and a 4% increase in water vapour in 30 years as reported in 2006 here, then quite a few things fall into place. Thomas has more than once seen a contradiction in the predicted increase in drought and a wetter climate but it is simple really. The warmer atmosphere, in general, sucks more moisture out of the oceans and hotter equatorial lands, and deposits more of it in the cooler higher latitudes. Even here in New Zealand I see this increasing wet and dry but whatever happens here, and on my lawn, is mild compared to what is going on in Australia, Pakistan, Russia and many other countries right now with droughts, floods and heatwaves, worse when they combine.

Noel

@Dandy

I followed that "Beyond Worst Case" link and more. Three years after the publishing of the 2007 IPCC reports I am increasingly taken with the shear volume of research and thought that went into it but I see that the appointments have already been made setting up the personnel that will head up the sections of the next report which I hope will give the politicians less ability to trump scientists in the published conclusions. The second line of the article repeats the official position that Quote:

Climate change is "unequivocal" and it is 90 percent certain that the "net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming," the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - a panel of more than 2,500 scientists and other experts - wrote in its first report on the physical science of global warming earlier this year.

What is never reported in the official literature and those books drawing heavily on it is that the position of those scientists was 99% certainty, but Saudi Arabia was the blocker and would not sign up until that number was ammended to 90%. 99% is about as much as you will ever get from a scientific undertaking. If you measure anything the accuracy has to be specified and uncertainties allowed for so 100% can never be claimed. When I was engaged in measuring displacements, stresses and temperatures I used equipment that was calibrated against other equipment which in turn was several removes from some international standard kept somewhere at some specific temperature. With each remove the reported error is doubled, Scientists talk of uncertainty but the public is persuaded by some that uncertainty means their entire conclusions are in question which is not the case.

Stephen Schneider died suddenly while traveling in UK recently. He was a very ill man but subsequent to his part in a recent examination of the credibility of climate scientists versus so-called sceptics he received such a barrage of death threats, a phenomenon that appears organised and a norm for a climate scientist now it seems, that he was quite shaken by them, though not deterred. Interview and video here.

Responses to criticisms of the original study published on realclimate after Schneider's death.

Noel

@BrianK

Quote:

Speaking of "Merchants of Doubt" by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M Conway they were about 20 miles away from me this week giving a lecture. Unfortunately, I didn't have the ability to attend.

Sigh. I live at the other end of the world from most events, and troubles, but if they were right here . . . never mind :)

Noel

@all

I'm wondering just who is actually planning to cope with sea-level rise?

Today I drove out along our North-Western motorway which is mostly a causeway with tidal water either side. The nominal spring tide was posted at 3.5 metres, normally not a problem unless pressure is low and a strong northerly or north-easterly is blowing which today it was. I was driving there a little after high tide. In parts the sea-level on the calm south-western side was about 150mm below the road. Coming back an hour later still I was collecting spray from the breakers on the north-eastern side. They were not high because of shallow water. Right now the tide is just about to peak at a nominal 3.6 metres and the wind piling up the water is considerably stronger despite a fair bit of rain.

The point of this is that I have not been aware of any planning to cope with sea-level rise which is not to say it is not being done. Auckland is perched on an isthmus formed in part by lots of volcanoes with almost all forms of transport obliged to negotiate low lying areas although the NW motorway seems to me the most vulnerable in the short term.

Record temperatures in 2010

Belarus, 7 August, 38.9C (102F) at Gomel

Ukraine, 1 August, 41.3C (106.3F), Lukhansk, Voznesensk

Cyprus, 1 August, 46.6C (115.9F), Lefconica

Finland, 29 July, 37.2C (99F), Joensuu

Qatar, 14 July, 50.4C (122.7F), Doha airport

Russia, 11 July, 44.0C (111.2F), Yashkul

Sudan, 25 June, 49.6C (121.3F), Dongola

Niger, 22 June, 47.1C (116.8F), Bilma

Saudi Arabia, 22 June, 52.0C (125.6F), Jeddah

Chad, 22 June, 47.6C (117.7F), Faya

Kuwait, 15 June, 52.6C (126.7F), Abdaly

Iraq, 14 June, 52.0C (125.6F), Basra

Pakistan, 26 May, 53.5C (128.3F), Mohenjo-daro

Burma, 12 May, 47C (116.6F), Myinmu

Ascension Island, 25 March, 34.9C (94.8F), Georgetown

Solomon Islands, 1 February, 36.1C (97F), Lata Nendo

Colombia, 24 January, 42.3C (108F), Puerto Salgar

The above were posted in the Guardian

Noel

Lake Superior is the largest, by surface area, fresh water lake in the world. Since it's near by me (compared to other lakes or oceans) I receive quite a bit of news on it's status. This year has been unseasonably warm. Because it's so large it typically doesn't reach 70 degrees until August. It reached those a month ahead of schedule. The lake is pushing 15-20 degrees warmer than normal. (Note the different in measures here depends on which month/day of the year one views the temp and the news cycle from.)

WHY? University of Minnesota researches state the reasons are an unseasonably warm spring along with a low amount of ice cover in the winter. 1 year does not a trend make. But, there has been a 40 year trend of less ice cover. Here is one news source if people are interested in reading more. NY Times - Lake Superior And of course GIYF

This shows what kind of loonies the greenies are: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/30/o-m-g-video-explodes-skeptical-kids-in-bloodbath/
At least they are shooting themselves in the foot with this video.

Edit: seems like the cowards pulled the video... Here is a link that works: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDXQsnkuBCM

Last edited by Tomas on 01-Oct-2010 at 04:35 PM.

@Tomas

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
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If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

I find www.netweather.tv is a good website and forum to look on throughout the year for anything weather or climate related. There is always debates on Global Warming and in fact Global Cooling, the Gulf Stream slowing down and lots of stuff I only half understand.

Busiest time on that forum is through the Winter months in the Northern Hemisphere when the UK debates whether its going to be a Winter christmas or just another non-descript typical british winter.

And if your a brit you'll probably heard of the 'legendary' Michael Fish, he has a weekly forecast on always worth watching.

Last edited by djrikki on 01-Oct-2010 at 11:23 AM.

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Wow, not funny. Looked like a terrorist training video to me.

Plaz

@Plaz

Yeah I agree totally. That was just not funny at all. So I choose to flag it as inappropriate for what is worth. I don't care if its 'celebrated-endorsed' thats just plain wrong.

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@djrikki

Quote:

djrikki wrote: @Plaz Yeah I agree totally. That was just not funny at all. So I choose to flag it as inappropriate for what is worth. I don't care if its 'celebrated-endorsed' thats just plain wrong.

Which is why i think people need to see this video. To see what kind of sick mind these extreme agw fanatics got.

In fairness there are nutters in every extreme, wether pro or anti on any issue. And we should suffer neither to go unchecked.

Plaz

Haha some success, the video has been marked as private.

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@Tomas

Here is another link to that 10:10 video.

Dunno what is the matter with the world these days.

A lot of "think and like what you want, as long as you think and like the same as we think and like" campaigns these days.

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Site admins are people too..pooff!

@tomazkid

Nice vide for promotion of the x1000. No pressure to buy.

This enviroment talk has gone a bit over the edge if you ask me.
But i have the ultimate solution. Remove the people,and the world will live on until the sun gets turned off.

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I'm an antique. Don't light my fuse

This popped up on the BBC a couple weeks back, I liked it because it was local, but theres something even more intresting further down the page.

Anyone for Hockey? 8)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/local/manchester/hi/people_and_places/nature/newsid_8997000/8997816.stm

Apparently, even on an average year, Manchester gets 50% more rain than the monsoon lashed India.

Haslingden can easly look at double that.

It aint called a Temperate Rainforest for nowt.

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The older and more respected a scientist is, the longer it takes to prove him wrong.

@RodTerl
I think western norway has around that amount of rain as well.. A few years ago the rainiest city in norway had a rain spell that lasted for over 90 days straight.
Even my city has around 16-22 rain days on average per month.

@Tomas

Its funny that energy industry is always comping abut lack of water.

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@NutsAboutAmiga

Quote:

NutsAboutAmiga wrote: @Tomas Its funny that energy industry is always comping abut lack of water.

Indeed... Sadly the problem here is not lack of water, but that they export like hell before the winter leaving water reservours with little left. Then once they run low they import energy at high prices and sends the bill to the average joe.

Last winter was extreme in my region. We had some days with kw/h prices going well above 1 euros which led to industry closing down and people not being able to afford their bills..

Did not help that we had the coldest winter in decades either...

Last edited by Tomas on 02-Oct-2010 at 07:16 PM.