Another interesting STUDY on the effects of social norms. In this study they varied telling people that science supports or rejects ESP along with varying the popularity % of ESP. Turns out more people believe in ESP if they're told science rejects it.

What I see here is a confirmation that opinions of peers and need for acceptance is high. Humans are afterall social animals. We're so social that we trade off the need to be in the 'normal' group that we frequently discard rational observations and conclusions.

Lord Monckton is touring, one recent visit he came to my home state, talking about the non-existence of Global Warming. Another scientist tackled his points in his statements by reading the science he claims backs his points. Turns out Monckton read the science wrong. LINK Do read the links in the article as they give more of the details on the how and why of Monckton's Folly.

Related to a changing climate is that our planet went through some very servere swings. Including new evidence for the Snowball Earth Theory. See some 716.5Million years ago we were essentially Hoth. LINK

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: Lord Monckton is touring, one recent visit he came to my home state, talking about the non-existence of Global Warming. Another scientist tackled his points in his statements by reading the science he claims backs his points. Turns out Monckton read the science wrong. LINK Do read the links in the article as they give more of the details on the how and why of Monckton's Folly.

Not that much of a surprise considering he knows very little about the actual science.
He is still not as bad as Gore though

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: @Dandy Quote: It'd be interesting to know if (and in which way) the oil film on the water affects the albedo of the region and so might have an impact on the local climate - aside from the obvious impacts on fauna and flora I haven't seen anything related to albedo. Most of the statements are derived from other oil spills where life, both plant and animal, were negatively impacted. Wikipedia has a link for the Exxon Valdez. It has lots of information and links to research articles. A good place to get started. ...

the gulf oil-slick from space:

"The visible image showed three bright areas of sunglint within the area of the gray-beige colored spill. Sunglint is a mirror-like reflection of the sun off the water’s surface. In calm waters, the rounded image of the sun would be seen in a satellite image. However, the waves in the Gulf blurred the reflection and created an appearance of three bright areas in a line on the ocean’s surface."


Furthermore there is an reflection at the boundary layer between immiscible liquids of different density, e.g. between oil and water.

Similarily there is a boundary layer between fresh water and sea water near river mouths, that is able to reflect sonar waves. This allowed German submarines to escape from the destroyers, when they attacked convoys in Canada in the Hudson Bay back in WW II.
So I really would expect a higher albedo of the oil-spill-area - will be interesting to see if this gets confirmed by scientists at some point...

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Dandy
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@Dandy

One of the things I read is that renewable energy is a failure because it is subsidized by the government.

As I often repeat so is oil. People then ask 'how much' -- Turns out in 2008 the subsidy to oil was $550 Billion . In the article the IAEA notes one of the things the world could do to get off the oil mainline is to stop the government subsidies.

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: @Dandy One of the things I read is that renewable energy is a failure because it is subsidized by the government. As I often repeat so is oil. People then ask 'how much' -- Turns out in 2008 the subsidy to oil was $550 Billion . In the article the IAEA notes one of the things the world could do to get off the oil mainline is to stop the government subsidies.

I wonder how much the amount of the subsidies will increase, once the full costs of the current oil spill in the Mexican Gulf are taken into account...

Will be interesting to see if and in which way the incident will have impact on the gas prices and so on...

_________________
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Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@Dandy

Quote:

Will be interesting to see if and in which way the incident will have impact on the gas prices and so on

In the short term BP will want to win favor with the public and win back customers. This may mean lowering their price compared to competitors. If this happens a low price war may break out. We'll see if this comes to bear.


@Thread
New report on glaciers
"Since the year 2000 till date, mount Kilimanjaro has witnessed a 26% increase in the rate of meltdown and if the current conditions prevail, the entire ice covered region could disappear in not more than two decades....
The study has also revealed that, the Furtwangler Glacier has been reduced by 50% in the last nine year"

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/13/then-and-now-europe-us-to-see-snowy-cold-winters-expert/
Quote:

From the “No matter what happens we can attribute it to Anthropogenic Climate Change” Department. In a story in physicorg.com James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, makes a few claims which will give some of our readers pause. While it may seem counter-intuitive, warmer Arctic climes caused by climate change influence air pressure at the North Pole, shifting wind patterns in such a way as to boost cooling over adjacent swathes of the planet. “Cold and snowy winters will be the rule rather than the exception,” said James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Continued rapid loss of ice will be an important driver of major change in the world’s climate system in the coming years, he said at an Olso meeting of scientists reviewing research from the two-year International Polar Year 2007-2008.

Gotta love how quick they are to spin things around when real world observations goes completely against their models and predictions.
I guess the sheeps will eat this lie raw as well..

But i guess they have to prepare for the coming global cooling or modern LIA that is right around the corner..

Funny how it started like this during previous solar grand minimums as well... They better make sure they drop even more weather stations that show cold temperatures..

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: @Dandy Quote: Will be interesting to see if and in which way the incident will have impact on the gas prices and so on In the short term BP will want to win favor with the public and win back customers. This may mean lowering their price compared to competitors. If this happens a low price war may break out. We'll see if this comes to bear. @Thread New report on glaciers "Since the year 2000 till date, mount Kilimanjaro has witnessed a 26% increase in the rate of meltdown and if the current conditions prevail, the entire ice covered region could disappear in not more than two decades.... The study has also revealed that, the Furtwangler Glacier has been reduced by 50% in the last nine year"

And i bet they are wrong...I guess we will see in 20 years.

I surely doubt it is due to warming at least: link
And more:
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2004/03/07/snow-fooling/

There is simply more to glacier retreat/advance than simple temperatures. Preciptiation/moisture matters a hell of alot more at such altitudes where it never gets warm even in summer.
But i guess that blind faith followers ignore common sense when it comes to climate.

Last edited by Tomas on 13-Jun-2010 at 11:27 PM.
Last edited by Tomas on 13-Jun-2010 at 11:18 PM.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/06/13/the-ipcc-consensus-on-climate-change-was-phoney-says-ipcc-insider/
Quote:

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change misled the press and public into believing that thousands of scientists backed its claims on manmade global warming, according to Mike Hulme, a prominent climate scientist and IPCC insider. The actual number of scientists who backed that claim was “only a few dozen experts,” he states in a paper for Progress in Physical Geography, co-authored with student Martin Mahony. “Claims such as ‘2,500 of the world’s leading scientists have reached a consensus that human activities are having a significant influence on the climate’ are disingenuous,” the paper states unambiguously, adding that they rendered “the IPCC vulnerable to outside criticism.”

What a surprise...

@BrianK

Quote:

Or another example might be citing there's simply no works ever that have shown this. It simply denies the tens of thousands of articles that do exist

You have yet to cite these imaginary thousands of papers.

Quote:

A good example of this would be posting the Popular Science 700 anti-gw papers. Often they fail understand many of these papers aren't peer reviewed and most have since been disproven.

Really? Many are not peer-reviewed? Name one.

And no most have not been disproven.

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: @Dandy One of the things I read is that renewable energy is a failure because it is subsidized by the government. As I often repeat so is oil. People then ask 'how much' -- Turns out in 2008 the subsidy to oil was $550 Billion . In the article the IAEA notes one of the things the world could do to get off the oil mainline is to stop the government subsidies.

That is just a investment... Why the heck do you think that Norway is so filthy rich today?
There is no profits in windmills unless you are one of the companies making them and sells windmills to naive warmists.

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: @Dandy Quote: Will be interesting to see if and in which way the incident will have impact on the gas prices and so on In the short term BP will want to win favor with the public and win back customers. This may mean lowering their price compared to competitors. If this happens a low price war may break out. We'll see if this comes to bear. ...

It was just this morning that we had it in the news here - a member of the government said they were expecting significantly higher prices for petrol, as the US administration banned offshore drilling for the time being (6 months). Furthermore there are already voices among the politicians (e.g. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders) calling for a permanent ban.

permanent halt to offshore drilling in the United States:
"...
As the nation awaits news on the success of operation "Top Kill," Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has introduced legislation that would seek a permanent halt to offshore drilling the United States—and a drastic increase in fuel efficiency standards beyond targets already set by the Obama administration in April.

Senator Sanders praised a recently announced six-month moratorium on new drilling projects, but said that it does not go far enough. "I think a moratorium is obviously a sensible idea," Sanders told MSNBC. "I would go further—I think you need a permanent ban on the West Coast, East Coast and parts of Florida."
..."

Oil industry afraid of higher costs and development delays:
"...
Unlike the administration's six-month extension of its ban on new deepwater drilling permits and its decision to cancel a much-anticipated lease sale offshore Virginia, the indefinite pause for existing deep-sea exploratory rigs to meet new safety requirements threatens to affect proven oil discoveries rather than untested areas.
...
Salazar confirmed that the halt would not apply to rigs operating in shallow waters.

That could increase costs and delay development plans for companies like Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) and Apache (APA.N), which are among the biggest Gulf explorers, while major contract drillers who could be left with idled rigs include Transocean (RIG.N) and Noble Corp (NE.N).
..."

Last edited by Dandy on 15-Jun-2010 at 11:35 AM.

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@Tomas

Quote:

Tomas wrote: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/13/then-and-now-europe-us-to-see-snowy-cold-winters-expert/ Quote: From the “No matter what happens we can attribute it to Anthropogenic Climate Change” Department. In a story in physicorg.com James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, makes a few claims which will give some of our readers pause. While it may seem counter-intuitive, warmer Arctic climes caused by climate change influence air pressure at the North Pole, shifting wind patterns in such a way as to boost cooling over adjacent swathes of the planet. “Cold and snowy winters will be the rule rather than the exception,” said James Overland of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Continued rapid loss of ice will be an important driver of major change in the world’s climate system in the coming years, he said at an Olso meeting of scientists reviewing research from the two-year International Polar Year 2007-2008. Gotta love how quick they are to spin things around when real world observations goes completely against their models and predictions.

Could it be that what you call "real world observations" actually just is your subjective, cherry picking perception?

I can very well remember a report on TV with professor Mojib Latif 10 - 15 years ago, where he showed an animated temperatur forecast world map.
This map was obviously derived from a climate model and clearly predicted that Western Europe as well as parts of North America would have the luck to stay colder for a while, while the rest of the world would be warming - causing ice caps and glaciers to melt.

So there is absolutely no "spin things around when real world observations goes completely against their models and predictions".
Rather in contrary - I see this prediction becoming reality now.

Quote:

Tomas wrote: I guess the sheeps will eat this lie raw as well..

The question here rather is "who is the lie eating sheep?"...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: ... the coming global cooling or modern LIA that is right around the corner..

Evidence?

Quote:

Tomas wrote: Funny how it started like this during previous solar grand minimums as well ...

During which of the "previous solar grand minimums" have you been around, old man? Was it the Oort Minimum, Wolf Minimum, Spörer Minimum, Maunder Minimum or Dalton Minimum?

Last edited by Dandy on 15-Jun-2010 at 11:06 AM.

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@Tomas

Quote:

“Claims such as ‘2,500 of the world’s leading scientists have reached a consensus that human activities are having a significant influence on the climate’ are disingenuous,” the paper states unambiguously, adding that they rendered “the IPCC vulnerable to outside criticism.”

Yet 2499 people are quiet. This guy just uncovered the biggest conspiracy evar!

And IPCC any science and especially directions to take on science should and is vulnerable to outside criticism. In fact science thrives on criticism. It's innate. Nothing different here.

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: @Tomas Quote: “Claims such as ‘2,500 of the world’s leading scientists have reached a consensus that human activities are having a significant influence on the climate’ are disingenuous,” the paper states unambiguously, adding that they rendered “the IPCC vulnerable to outside criticism.” Yet 2499 people are quiet. This guy just uncovered the biggest conspiracy evar! And IPCC any science and especially directions to take on science should and is vulnerable to outside criticism. In fact science thrives on criticism. It's innate. Nothing different here.

It shows that there really is no consensus and that IPCC, politicians and media has been lying about that part all along.

@Dandy

Quote:

Could it be that what you call "real world observations" actually just is your subjective, cherry picking perception? I can very well remember a report on TV with professor Mojib Latif 10 - 15 years ago, where he showed an animated temperatur forecast world map. This map was obviously derived from a climate model and clearly predicted that Western Europe as well as parts of North America would have the luck to stay colder for a while, while the rest of the world would be warming - causing ice caps and glaciers to melt.

No, i am not cherry picking. I am talking about predictions like increased hurricane activity, increased water vapour, increased positive feedbacks, less snow and so on.
Real world observations shows that hurricane activity has been dropping for decades on average, atmospheric water vapour has been declining over the last years, snow has been increasing alot over the last decade, feedbacks with warming seems to be pointing more negative than positive, they cant find the missing heat/energy in climate system and so on...

They also predicted that northern europe would have milder and less snowy summers on average, yet they are now suddenly saying that we should expect cold winters to become the norm.
UK and for example scandinavia is one of the areas that was expected to have most of the so called global warming and also to experience it first.
Yet we have had the coldest winter in decades while they predicded milder than average and now even say such cold winters will be the norm.

This is just them spinning things around because they know this is a result from ocean cycles and solar cycle(s) turning into cooling mode. This winter was a big surprise to most warmists...

I can bet that they will even blame the decades of GLOBAL cooling we will most like have soon on AGW as well and i bet you will blindly believe whatever spin they put on it like a true believer.

Quote:

During which of the "previous solar grand minimums" have you been around, old man? Was it the Oort Minimum, Wolf Minimum, Spörer Minimum, Maunder Minimum or Dalton Minimum?

There is enough data in records to show that the cooling started out first in Europe before global tempratures went down. Some regions experience the warming and cooling cycles years before other regions and i doubt this time will be any different. It is also believed that jet streams changed duringt he grand minimum which can also explain this years winter and the quick winter cooling in EU during last minimums.

A question for you: What exactly is needed to happen for you to switch sides? Would you change your opinion if for example earth cooled now for 1-3 decades or more? When i say cooling i mean return to the "normal" or below "normal" temperatures.

Last edited by Tomas on 15-Jun-2010 at 09:28 PM.
Last edited by Tomas on 15-Jun-2010 at 09:24 PM.

@Tomas

Quote:

Tomas wrote: @Dandy Quote: Could it be that what you call "real world observations" actually just is your subjective, cherry picking perception? I can very well remember a report on TV with professor Mojib Latif 10 - 15 years ago, where he showed an animated temperatur forecast world map. This map was obviously derived from a climate model and clearly predicted that Western Europe as well as parts of North America would have the luck to stay colder for a while, while the rest of the world would be warming - causing ice caps and glaciers to melt. No, i am not cherry picking. I am talking about predictions like increased hurricane activity,

Increased Atlantic Hurricane Activity Identified

Quote:

Tomas wrote: increased water vapour, increased positive feedbacks,

Increase In Atmospheric Moisture Tied To Human Activities

Quote:

Tomas wrote: less snow and so on.

sceptics vs. science (#88):

"To claim that record snowfall is inconsistent with a warming world betrays a lack of understanding of the link between global warming and extreme precipitation. Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events. This includes more heavy snowstorms in regions where snowfall conditions are favourable. Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events."
more...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: Real world observations shows that hurricane activity has been dropping for decades on average,

sceptics vs. science (#16, #41):

"It is unclear whether global warming is increasing hurricane frequency but there is increasing evidence that warming increases hurricane intensity."
more...
even more...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: atmospheric water vapour has been declining over the last years, feedbacks with warming seems to be pointing more negative than positive,

sceptics vs. science (#24):

"Water vapour is the most dominant greenhouse gas. Water vapour is also the dominant positive feedback in our climate system and amplifies any warming caused by changes in atmospheric CO2. This positive feedback is why climate is so sensitive to CO2 warming."
more...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: snow has been increasing alot over the last decade,

See above...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: they cant find the missing heat/energy in climate system and so on...

skeptics vs. science (#57):

"Oceans are warming across the globe. In fact, globally oceans are accumulating energy at a rate of 4 x 1021 Joules per year - equivalent to 127,000 nuclear plants (which have an average output of 1 gigawatt) pouring their energy directly into the world's oceans. This tells us the planet is in energy imbalance - more energy is coming in than radiating back out to space."
more...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: They also predicted that northern europe would have milder and less snowy summers on average, yet they are now suddenly saying that we should expect cold winters to become the norm. UK and for example scandinavia is one of the areas that was expected to have most of the so called global warming and also to experience it first. Yet we have had the coldest winter in decades while they predicded milder than average and now even say such cold winters will be the norm.

Milder and less snowy summers?
Hmmmmmm - the last 52 summers I experienced were all mild and entirely without snow here - how much less than nothing did they predict?

skeptics vs. science (#78):

"The cold snap is due to a strong phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This is causing cool temperatures at mid-latitudes (eg - Eurasia and North America) and warming in polar regions (Greenland and Arctic Ocean). The warm and cool regions roughly balance each other out with little impact on global temperature."
more...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: This is just them spinning things around because they know this is a result from ocean cycles and solar cycle(s) turning into cooling mode. This winter was a big surprise to most warmists...

skeptics vs. science (#70)

"There are many lines of independent empirical evidence for global warming, from accelerated ice loss from the Arctic to Antarctica to the poleward migration of plant and animal species across the globe."
more...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: I can bet that they will even blame the decades of GLOBAL cooling we will most like have soon on AGW as well and i bet you will blindly believe whatever spin they put on it like a true believer.

Your re-uttering of brainless skeptics rhetorics (mostly consisting of hollow phrases) is really getting boring.
Science is based on facts, not on beliefs...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: Quote: During which of the "previous solar grand minimums" have you been around, old man? Was it the Oort Minimum, Wolf Minimum, Spörer Minimum, Maunder Minimum or Dalton Minimum? There is enough data in records to show that the cooling started out first in Europe before global tempratures went down.

???

I'm sure you can present links to support your claims...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: Some regions experience the warming and cooling cycles years before other regions and i doubt this time will be any different.

This is most likely due to the different environments surrounding your regions...

Quote:

Tomas wrote: It is also believed that jet streams changed duringt he grand minimum which can also explain this years winter and the quick winter cooling in EU during last minimums.

Yes, Jet Streams are appeartently moving poleward:

Historical trends in the jet streams

Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate

Enhanced Mid-Latitude Tropospheric Warming in Satellite Measurements

Regarding the "grand minimum":

On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth

Quote:

Tomas wrote: A question for you: What exactly is needed to happen for you to switch sides? Would you change your opinion if for example earth cooled now for 1-3 decades or more? When i say cooling i mean return to the "normal" or below "normal" temperatures.

I would start to re-think if we had 1-2 m snow here in Cologne city in June, July August and September every year for some decades...

Last edited by Dandy on 16-Jun-2010 at 12:01 PM.
Last edited by Dandy on 16-Jun-2010 at 11:59 AM.
Last edited by Dandy on 16-Jun-2010 at 11:56 AM.
Last edited by Dandy on 16-Jun-2010 at 11:42 AM.

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@Tomas

Quote:

Tomas wrote: @BrianK ...It shows that there really is no consensus and that IPCC, politicians and media has been lying about that part all along.

skeptics vs. science (#3):

"That humans are causing global warming is the position of the Academies of Science from 19 countries plus many scientific organizations that study climate science. More specifically, around 95% of active climate researchers actively publishing climate papers endorse the consensus position."
more...

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Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)